MIAMI, FL (National Presse) – A tropical disturbance east of the Lesser Antilles has many eyes on it as concerns grow that it may impact the United States. Hurricane season officially started on June 1 with the anticipation of this year being one of the most active in decades in terms of tropical systems.
Hurricane Beryl grew narrowly close to Puerto Rico, a US-territory) but continued westward, impacting southern Texas. Residents of Florida was concerned that Beryl could have turned sharp-right into the Gulf of Mexico, but thankfully that did not occur.
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in their latest outlook, Forecaster Robbie Berg concluded “An area of disturbed weather over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean is expected to interact with an approaching tropical wave
during the next couple of days. Environmental conditions are
forecast to become conducive for some development thereafter, and
a tropical depression could form mid to late week while the system
is near or over the northern Leeward Islands, Greater Antilles, or
southwestern Atlantic Ocean.”
One concerning matter is that there will be two areas of high-pressure which could create a “funnel effect”, allowing low-pressure to squeeze between to two. The first area of high-pressure is expected to center over the rockies, and expand east to the northern Gulf of Mexico and the Mississippi River. The second area of high-pressure is centered over the Atlantic Ocean, which will site around 100-200 miles off of the east coast.
The Global Forecast System (GFS) is a model system that scientists and forecasters can use to get an idea as to what a system may do. It is not a prediction or forecast, it is simply a tool to see how a system may or may not happen. The GFS on July 27 showed nothing credible, much like July 28. The GFS model suggested we may see something come into the gulf.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), known as the “euro”, suggests this disturbance could track further east into the Atlantic ocean and not make any impact to the United States.
Many weather enthusiasts will share models as forecasts, and proclaim these are forecasts of impacts. Meteorologists do not want misinformation being spread online.
Austin Ayers is a reporter for National Presse, and can be reached at [email protected]
