The Israel Defense Force has recently provided a critical document to mayors and regional leaders in Northern Israel outlining what to expect in the event of a full-scale war with Hezbollah. Key points include preparations for a three-day power outage in some cities, a potential week-long water interruption, up to eight hours without landline connections, and a 24-hour disconnection of cell phone services. Local internet and radio intercepts are also anticipated.
This weekend, Prime Ministers throughout the region were given secured and encrypted satellite phones to communicate “off the grid“. Significant GPS disruptions have occurred in Israel, Jordan, and Lebanon.
Officials warn that hundreds of rockets, each carrying 50-500kg warheads, could target cities such as Haifa and Tel Aviv, with military facilities, infrastructure, and civilian targets likely being prioritized by Hezbollah.
The United States is planning for Iran to attack Israel within the next 24-48 hours.
In response to the potential threat, plans are being developed to evacuate 40% of Israel’s workforce from central areas towards Jerusalem and further south. Tent cities are being planned north of Eilat and in the Negev Desert to accommodate and provide for several hundred thousand to a million refugees.
From The Israel Times:
“Some 40% of the nation’s workforce may be unable to work for the duration of the conflict, and service providers from outside affected areas may become unavailable throughout, according to the document.
The security establishment, The Times of Israel has learned, assesses that Israel could face an unprecedented attack with hundreds of rockets, carrying warheads ranging from payloads of 50 kilograms — like the one that hit Majdal Shams, killing 12 children at a soccer field — to 10 times that.
Hezbollah would be expected to prioritize targeting IDF facilities, then infrastructure, and then civilian targets, though that could change. It would be expected to aim at targets far to the south of Haifa, including Tel Aviv, possibly forcing the evacuation of large numbers of people to Jerusalem and to the south.
The evacuees would be housed in hotels, some of which are already housing numerous displaced Israelis from the north. If hotels in the Jerusalem area are full up, the evacuees would be accommodated in schools in the city.
Plans are being made for tent cities in the south, including in areas such as Timna, north of Eilat, and Eshkol Park in the Negev. The model for these is similar to that of the tents set up by Arcadi Gaydamak on Nitzanim Beach in 2006, for citizens evacuated from the north during the Second Lebanon War, and in 2007 at Yarkon Park for Sderot residents.
According to senior IDF sources, existing protective measures — notably including safe rooms — are extremely effective against missiles, including those of Hezbollah. Furthermore, according to the sources, the Home Front Command and local authorities are properly prepared for the scenario.
At the same time, “the reality for the other side will be far worse, to put it mildly,” one security official told The Times of Israel.
In the event of a major attack from the north, cities such as Sderot, Ofakim and Netivot would ironically become relatively safe places as regards Hezbollah missile strikes; cities in the south that were targeted in October 2023 would thus become cities of refuge in August 2024.
Yair Maayan, mayor of the southern city of Arad, last week encouraged residents of the north to consider evacuating to his quiet city, “and anybody who wants to, can also stay.”
